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Eric Peterson presents at the Argus Crude & Refined Products Exports Conference

Published in Presentations on June 27, 2017
Eric Peterson, Director of Market Research and Analytics, evaluates North American production and future midstream flows to the U.S. Gulf Coast at the Argus Crude & Refined Products Exports conference in Houston, TX.
• Over the past 12 months, active U.S. rig count has more than doubled from May 2016 lows
• At current rig count, North American crude oil production will grow an incremental 2MM by 2019
• The Gulf Coast (PADD 3) is the destination for incremental Canadian heavy production growth 
• PADD 3 has more than doubled consumption of Canadian crude from January 2014 to January 2017, and is expected to continue to grow
• Currently 266,000 bpd of Canadian crude supply flows through PADDs 2 and 4 into PADD 3 for processing
• With the opening of the Dakota Access Pipeline, Bakken production flows via crude-by-rail, and pipeline volumes running through Cushing and via Mainline will be impacted
• Pipeline construction timing is critical, as Permian basin production could exceed currently available pipeline takeaway capacity over the next 12 months
• By 2019, with increasing domestic production and midstream developments, the Gulf Coast will have 1.85MMbpd of new production headed its way